DB transfer values recover but activity remains low

The DB Pensions Transfer Value Index compiled by XPS Pensions increased by 2.6% during November to £156,000, the biggest increase seen since March. The bounce back comes after a consistent downward trend over the past year in both values and activity. XPS says the primary driver of the increase was the fall in gilt yields, breaking the trend of consistent increases over the past six months. XPS’s Transfer Activity Index saw a small decrease over November 2023, to an annualised rate of 21 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements, the equal lowest value reported by the Index. The Activity Index has been stable in recent months, with only small changes in activity seen, XPS says. However, over the longer term activity has dropped to only a quarter of the levels seen in 2019, suggesting far fewer DB pension transfers are taking place now. While the Transfer Value Index has risen this month, values are significantly lower than 18 months ago. XPS confirms this may be due to fewer people electing to transfer, reducing demand. Some 90% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in October raised at least one scam warning flag, according to XPS’s Scam Flag Index, although some of these may be only risk flagging rather than scam attempts. While this is an increase of 6% compared to October 2023, it remains slightly lower than the trend over the past year. This is due to a greater number of members continuing to purchase immediate annuities, compared to this time last year, the firm says. The XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value. XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically. XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK, DB schemes this indicates that approximately 20,000 DB members leave their schemes each year XPS Pensions Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed.

DB transfer values recover but activity remains low

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